Come 2015, from Mukesh Ambani, the richest Indian, to a beggar in the street, all Indians will get 35 kg of food grains every month at Rs 3 a kg as a matter of right. Monsoon or no monsoon, drought or no drought, the government will be constitutionally committed to procure enough grains and supply them to the citizens. The National Advisory Council (NAC) headed by Congress president Sonia Gandhi, that includes some eminent persons as members, has decided to go in for universalisation of food security across the country in a phased manner by 2015. One-fourth of the poorest blocks, which comes to around 2,000 blocks or 200 districts, will be brought under the ambit of the Food Security Act, in the first stage. In these 2,000 blocks, 35 kg of rice or wheat would be sold to the entire population at Rs 35 per kg. The first phase will be implemented within a year of the enactment of the Food Security Bill. In the remaining 6,000 blocks, the special food distribution schemes being followed by various state governments would be continued and build on them to ensure a comprehensive food security. The NAC has decided to bring the entire country under the purview of the NFSA by 2015.

The proposed Food Security Act (NFSA) is a “universal blunder” being committed by the Congress party. The Act was the party’s electoral promise with an eye on the vote bank that would ensure the BPL families 25 kg of rice or wheat per month at Rs 3 a kg. Following public criticism that they were already getting 35 kg of grains every month, the monthly quantum was raised to 35 kg. And more than a year later, the government is still persisting with the utopian scheme. But the question is how do we identify 2,000 poorest blocks in the country. And how do we achieve universalisation of grain entitlement across the country by 2015 if the country doesn’t produce enough food?

Even after six decades of independence the subsequent governments could not plug the loopholes in the public distribution system (PDS), with the result the highly subsided food grains are not reaching the targeted population. To make the matter worse, the government doesn’t even know the exact number of families that need subsidised grains. The Planning Commission figure puts 27% of the population as poor, but according to the government appointed Suresh Tendulkar Committee some 37.2% are poor. And various NGOs and state governments go beyond the official counts and reel out a staggering figure of more than 50% as people below the poverty line. Anyway, what’s the yardstick to determine poverty in the country? A family that earns less than Rs 20 a day (or Rs 600 a month) in the rural areas and Rs 25 a day (or Rs 750 a month) in the urban areas are considered to be poor. Are there any families that earn less than Rs 20 a day? If so, what the finance minister could easily do is to put Rs 20 in their pockets and totally scrap the public distribution system that costs the government Rs 63,000 crore towards food subsidy every year. The problem is that nobody tells the truth about the income.

Another big problem is that of fake or bogus ration cards, over 8 crore of them. This is much more than the estimated number of poor households of over six crore. At least 10-15% of PDS grains are lost in transit or diverted by the truckers and ration shop owners. If the government could eliminate the bogus cards and check the losses during transportation and the delivery system, it could save 35-40% of the amount spent on subsidies. Since the PDS cannot be saved from corruption and other loopholes, how’s the government going to implement food security? If the objective of the Food Security Bill is to ensure access to food for all, especially the poor, an improved and better targeted PDS should achieve the result. The PDS is running smoothly in the southern states of Andhra Predaesh, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Karnataka and Kerala, where the state governments are selling rice, the staple food in the south, at a further subsidised rate of Rs 2 a kg.

While the government could not identify the real poor so far, how is it going to identify the 2,000 poorest blocks in the country amid conflicting interests from state governments.

Instead of one year, it will take the full term of the UPA government to decide on the 2,000 poorest blocks in the country. The non-Congress governments will be fighting for their share of the food pie, delaying the implementation of the scheme. Universal food security programme may also end up including the rich and the middle class, many of whom are in no need of subsidised food. Their share of the grains will reach the black market as is the case at present since some of the cardholders are not buying their rations. Should the government waste money on those who do not require subsidised food?

It’s populism, no doubt. But where are the grains? The government procures on an average 50 million tonnes of rice and wheat. For universalisation of the PDS at 35 kg per family, the government will have to double the present procurement. This may be possible by paying more to the farmers or by imports. Either way, it will further erode, rather than enhance the country’s overall food security. The subsidy burden will also more than double from the present Rs 63,000 crore.

Replacing the PDS with food coupons or direct cash payments for the BPL cardholders is being considered. Food coupons or cash payments will neither ensure that the poor get access to food nor bring down the government’s subsidy bill. What’s the use of a food coupon if grains are not available in the market? Issue of coupons will not eliminate bogus cards without appropriate overhaul of the processes and use of Information Technology. Chhattisgarh has reportedly demonstrated that the system can be made to deliver with the use of Information Technology. So would the use of biometric cards help weed out fake ration cardholders and unidentifiable households.

Is payment of subsidy amount in cash a solution? In poor families that cash will be used for buying more liquor than food. Some suggest that the money should be paid to the woman of the family. Probably, they are not aware of the fate of the rural women! Anyway, universal cash transfer plan can be implemented only after unique IDs are allotted.

The NAC is silent on reforming the PDS or how it is going to feed a population of 1.19 billion. Our biggest problem is that food production doesn’t catch up with the population growth. During the last 10 years, food production has been stagnant at around 210-220 million tonnes with an exception of a record 233 million tonnes in 2009. At present India’s population is more than the combined population of Africa and South America. By 2020, the population will be equivalent to the combined population of Africa, North and South America. By 2025, India will overtake China, the most populous country in the world at present. If India continues at the current growth rate, the country’s population will double in the next 50 years, making sustainable development unattainable. Interestingly, one in every four persons in the world will be an Indian by then. A recent UNDP survey says that 8 Indian states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal have more poor than 26 African states put together. Angola, Zambia, Zanzibar and Uganda are far better than some of the Indian states. What a shame!

In order to ensure food safety, the country has to produce more grains and reduce the population growth rate like in China where the government has made one child norm compulsory. The government’s concern for the aam aadmi is understandable to a certain extent. But by supplying everything virtually free to the poor, the government is not promoting the cause of family planning. This writer always insists that the poor should also be made to struggle for a living. Unless we do that, there is nothing to stop from breeding at a faster rate. What has happened to the “Hum Do Hamare DO” family planning campaign? Probably, after what the late Sanjay Gandhi had done, family planning has become a dirty word for the political parties!

A responsible government should frame the food security linked to family planning. Families that volunteer to undergo sterilisation after the birth of one or two children should be given incentives like more rations at lesser price. How about supplying free condoms along with rations? Even the right to education should be limited to two children. (The author is former Editor of Deccan Chronicle/The Daily and can be contacted atpnvnair24@gmail.com)