With the Chief Election Commission announcing the much awaited schedule to conduct by-elections to 18 assembly and lone parliament Nellore seat, now the debate has begun - who’ll be gainer - Congress or TDP or the newly formed YSR Congress?

The impact of the by-polls also bound to have adverse affect on all these parties, if they face reversals. Hence, all these three main contenders are a worried a lot today.

The by-polls necessitated following the expulsion of 18 rebel Congress MLAs for defying the party whip during a ‘trust vote’ moved by the main Opposition Telugu Desam party against the N Kiran Kumar Reddy government. All these MLAs, who expressed their solidarity with the Kadapa MP and YSR Congress Party President Y S Jaganmohan Reddy, in fact, had also submitted their resignations protesting against the CBI naming the former chief minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy in the CBI charge-sheet of ‘illegal assets’ case. However, the Congress party had taken the extreme step of expelling the rebels only after they defied the party whip.

Of the by-polls held so far to 21 assembly constituencies since 2009 general elections, the Congress and TDP drew blank, while the YSRC won two, one each by BJP and an independent, while the rest by the TRS. Majority of these by-elections necessitated as the members from the ruling Congress and TDP crossed over to TRS or YSRC.

For Congress and its Chief Minister, N Kiran Kumar Reddy, the by-polls certainly stand litmus test. If party fails to retain even a couple of seats, then the party government’s very existence becomes questionable. Already news reports suggest that New Delhi is examining options before it in case the party draws a blank in the by-polls. Analysts suggest option of revoking Art 356 imposing President’s Rule, may be for a brief spell, can’t be ruled out.

Contrary to this, the main Opposition TDP has no stakes whatsoever except wresting couple of seats may boast their image and establish the impression that it is on comeback trail with general elections just two years away. Hence, Naidu continue to carry on with his ‘corruption’ tirade against the ruling Congress as well the YSRC President Jaganmohan Reddy. His party threatened to intensify its campaign against the Congress and YSRC on alleged ‘loot of public exchequer’. The TDP determined to use the ongoing CBI probe against Jagan’s illegal assets, to equate the Congress and YSR Congress branches of the same tree, notwithstanding the fact that similar efforts of that party failed to yield any tangible results in their favor either in 2004 or 2009 elections.

Naidu and his party argue that people might not have believed in the past as YSR managed to hoodwink even his own party high command in New Delhi. Now, the situation changed and the Delhi had to bow down to AP High Court for a CBI probe into Jagan’s illegal assets and it is progressing well to prove their allegations right. But, can the CBI ever prove Jagan ‘guilty’ of so called ‘quid pro quo’ theory reaping benefits of his late father’s favors to some Corporate houses?

That’s how the CBI is being used even in the past by the Congress indeed got exposed in the latest revelations by former Switzerland’s Super Cop in Bofors deal as far as ‘fixing’ (read dragging) Super Star Amitabh Bachchan is concerned. It is no secret that it was V P Singh, who succeeded Rajiv Gandhi to head Janata Dal-led coalition government, who forced the investigators to include Amitabh into Bofors scam as he (Singh) had something to settle scores with the film star as his popularity almost eclipsed his in UP and was also a close pal of Rajiv Gandhi and also to Nehru-Indira family.

Being what it is of the CBI image in public eye, many voters in Andhra were of the ‘firm view’ that it was the game plan of Sonia-Rahul to ‘fix’ Jagan in the case. The aam admi also argues, in which deal one can guarantee non-existence of any type of quid pro quo?

If the erstwhile TDP government headed by Nara Chandrababu Naidu ‘gifted away” thousands of acres of lands in and around Hyderabad and Secunderabad, besides in neighboring Rangareddy district to IT Corporates and helped his community members, so was YSR during his first stint. Ironically, the CBI choose to turn a blind eye to Naidu’s tenure quid pro quo affairs, which include the party headquarters building, which it got built allegedly by erstwhile renowned Larsen & Toubro.

But, like calling a ‘rogue, a rogue’ (read ‘chor (thief) calling others chor (thieves), the TDP enjoys no credibility whatsoever in the public eye. Added to it is their unfulfilled dream of ‘Jagan getting arrested by the CBI. The TDP and its supportive media houses indeed carried out a campaign of his arrest sooner than later and also pronounced deadlines. Either for reasons best known to them or the CBI’s failure to gather clinching evidence, that dream could not become a reality. Anti-Jagan media also lived with great hopes that the UPA-II will hoodwink even the constitutional body like the Election Commission to postpone the polls at least few more months. But even that fell flat on their face.

Realising the ground realties after facing some hostile crowds during their electioneering, the TDP now shifted its ‘focus’ from CBI to Tirumala episode where the YSRC President, a Baptist by birth, refuse to sign the Declaration Form, before entering the temple. This again likely to boomerang as dragging ‘religious’ matters may as well tantamount to violation of election code, as they bound whip up passions.

As if that was not enough, TDP now unleashed the campaign of possible imposition of President’s Rule in the state after the polls. Contrary to this, the ruling Congress refused to accept it as ‘referendum’ to their rule and instead blames YSRC President Y S Jaganmohan Reddy for thrusting upon people yet another round of elections costing wasteful expenditure on public exchequer.

What does it mean? Both the Congress and TDP seems admit ‘defeat’ even before the ‘battle’ begun! A rout of Congress and TDP looks almost certain in the ‘semi-finals’ or ‘mini-general’ election, on which ever name one propose to describe the by-polls. Yet, again YSRC bound to have the last laugh much chagrin to Delhi darbar.