With the CBI freezing bank accounts of ‘Sakshi’ related bank accounts and summoning Kadapa MP and YSRC President, Y S Jaganmohan Reddy, to appear on May 28 in disproportionate assets case, media is abuzz with the stories of his imminent arrest.

While, the linguistic media hostile to YSR family claims ‘arrest of Jagan’ as inevitable in the backdrop of observations by judges of High Court while dealing with a bail application of Vijay Sai Reddy, the auditor of Jagati Publications. The Judges sought the rationale for seeking detention of accused No.2 in the case, while allowing the No 1 to remain free.

Thus, the CBI has issued summons asking Jagan to appear before it on May 28 based on the first-set of charge-sheet filed by the probing officials. According to anti-Jagan media, even if the CBI Judge dealing with the case fails to act upon by handing over the set of charge-sheet copies to the accused and ask him to reply, the probing officials may as well seek his ‘custody’ for further investigations. In other words, his arrest, according to them now becomes imminent.

Contrary to their claims pro-Jagan group and their lawyers claim it was only wishful thinking of their political rivals. They accuse the anti-Jagan media campaigners trying to influence the CBI court to take such steps.

In such a background context, can the Congress Party afford to take such a vicious political strategic stroke to further arouse the hurt sentiments and self respect of ‘Telugus” in the portals of New Delhi?

Undeniably, politics is a vicious and ruthless power game. None can rule out the possibility of the Congress High Command resorting to such a strategy out of fear suffering a drubbing during the by polls.

Of course, the stakes are very high for the Congress Party. Should they make such an ill conceived move, the prospects of voters rallying against the Congress Party cannot be ruled out. Surely, voter’s sympathy (beneficiaries of YSR Welfare Schemes) to the son of their most beloved leader would certainly polarize and deliver a knock-out blow to the Congress Party. Crowds rallying around Jagan during his pre election campaign rallies are a clear indication of their love and respect for him and his party.

People are no fools. They know that late Dr Y S Rajasekhara Reddy and his aide KVP Ramachander Rao mobilized funds at the behest of High Command. While doing so, it is also common knowledge that they and their cabinet ministers have been retaining a portion of collections to enrich themselves and their progeny to advance their future political prospects. It is the game played by all political parties whilst in power. Unfortunately, late Dr. YSR is no more to tell the real truth.

In such a scenario, who should be the real accused No 1, 2, 3, 4, …….? First, it should be the Congress High Command followed by late Dr. YSR, KVP Ramachander Rao, concerned Ministers and those officials who colluded with them. By above consideration, even the judiciary is suspect and partisan.
That’s why the Supreme Court had slapped notices on half a dozen erstwhile colleagues of YSR and on equal number of IAS officers, seeking explanation from them over the same GOs benefitting those accused companies in the Jagan’s disproportionate case. Can Rajasekhara Reddy alone as Chief Minister taken such policy decision of ‘gifting away’ government lands for a song without his Cabinet colleagues’ acceptance? Next to impossible!

Can CBI court dare take a decision and order for Jagan’s arrest, while the main characters who were responsible in issuing GOs pending before the Supreme Court?

Legal luminaries say that even if Jagan is arrested on May 28, he can as well obtain a ‘bail’ and it shouldn’t be a major constraint. Pro-Jagan group argues that such a ‘foolhardy’ by either the probing officials or Court magistrate only benefit their nominees with thumping majorities in almost all 18 assembly constituencies as well Nellore Lok Sabha, as people of the state already understood undue haste of the ruling Congress as well discredited Opposition Telugu Desam’s efforts to somehow see Jagan behind the bars.

Quite obviously, both the Congress and TDP appear to have already accepted the defeat even before the battle for ballot begun. No wonder, the Congress is unwilling to accept it as a ‘referendum’. And, the TDP harps on ‘sympathy’ factor continue to favor YSRC candidates in most of the constituencies.

For the Congress Party High Command, it is a strategic gamble with far reaching ramifications for its prospects. They need to be highly calculative while taking such a decision.

If Jagans is arrested, his mother and wife of late Dr. YSR, Ms Vijayamma, may take to streets along with her daughter and daughter-in-law which will be fare dangerous than Jagan. Sympathy would certainly favor them.

Should the decision backfire, then the High Command may lose its face for ever among the Telugus or consigned to the dust bin of history for ever. It implies an irretrievable setback to pretensions of Rahul Gandhi to become the PM.

Even if its moves carry conviction among the voters, the Opposition Telugu Desam will stand to gain and not the Congress Party. Let none of the Congress Party backroom strategists nurture hopes for making dent into YSRC strongholds.

Finally, one cannot also rule out the possibility of law order situation going out of control if Jagan is arrested. Many feel thousands of poor in the state are emotively attached to YSR and any misadventure by the government or probing agency may as well prove something of ‘igniting a bomb’ like in the state.

In sum, arrest of Jagan as the last strategic stroke may pave the pave for a “Himalayan” loss to Congress Party. It is bound to foreclose any chance for Rahul Gandhi to become PM. It may also set the course for ‘Congress High Command’s” trail.