Ahead of elections, my senior colleague P Sainath seems rightly described that the fight was between the YSR Congress party led by jailed Y S Jaganmohan Reddy and the premier investigating agency of the country, CBI, as the ruling Congress as well the Opposition Telugu Desam conceded the defeat even before the battle begun and chose to fight it over second and third positions.

Though, the verdict has come nearer to his analysis as the Congress lost deposit in six constituencies and Telugu Desam in five, the ruling clique could breathe by retaining two seats – one each in East and West Godavari districts
(Ramachandrapuram and Narsapur). Post by-poll analysis indicate that the YSRC got more votes than the Congress and TDP put together. While the YSRCP bagged 48.88 per cent of the 37.29 lakh votes polled, the Congress and Telugu Desam together accounted just 44.62. In terms of numbers, the YSRCP polled 18.23 lakh votes against 8.44 lakh votes of the Congress and 8.20 lakh votes of the TDP.

What does it mean? Should one consider that it was sympathy factor that helped YSRCP get so many votes as ‘claimed’ by the Vijayawada Congress MP Lagadapati Rajagopal and some TDP leaders like Yanamala Ramakrishnudu or the people per se looking forward for change of leadership as they are vexed with the ruling and opposition parties?

Both these parties went into huddling after the electorate given their verdict for introspection. Though they tried defend themselves that the ‘sympathy’ factor over ran them, yet heart-in-heart they realized that their days on state political stage numbered.

Simply because the support to Jagan’s YSRC is swelling abnormally and crossed 50 per cent votes, a record of sort, which didn’t even happen when NTR rode to victory in 1983. In as many as six assembly constituencies where YSRCP was expected to face rough weather – Polavaram (the irrigation project which allegedly displaced thousands of farmers), Rajampet, Koduru, Rayachoti, Allagadda and Anantapur Urban – and 54.59 per cent in Nellore parliamentary constituency. Another interesting factor is that the Cong and TDP votes share also fell below 30 per cent in majority of the constituencies. Believe it or not, the Congress had also failed to poll even 10 per cent votes in Prattipadu and Anantapur Urban and TDP candidates experiencing the same fate in Ramachandrapuram and Narsapur, where there are wild allegations of ‘match fixing’ between these parties over ‘transfer of votes.’

No impact of Chiranjeevi: These numbers also indicate massive shifts, if one chose to compare with the 2009 polls. In 2009, the Congress won 16 of the 18 assembly seats that went to the polls on June 12 same year. Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) won the other two. Add up the votes of these two parties in 2009 and on paper they seem an invincible combine.

The two got a total of over 16 lakh votes in the 18 seats. Their combined vote was higher than that of the next force (Telugu Desam Party) over 40,000 votes, in some cases even by 50,000. And remember that the PRP subsequently merged in the Congress. Yet, this time their merged force won just two of those seats and lost 63 per cent of their combined vote of 2009.

In contrast, the Telugu Desam party did not win a single seat but fared better in retaining its core vote. It lost around 11 per cent compared to its 2009 performance. The Congress (post-PRP merger) came seond in six seats, third in nine and fifth in one (Parakal in Telangana, a seat it won in 2009). The Congress lost deposit in four seats.

This apart, the CBI, which over enthusiastically followed the diktat of Delhi leadership and went ahead in putting the new ‘charismatic’ leader Jaganmohan Reddy behind bars, in Chenchalguda prison in a bid to take overall credit for YSRCP’s possible defeat, also could not be fulfilled.

So who should be blamed for the Cong-TDP combine’s poor performance? The ‘sympathy’ wave in favor of Jagan or the ‘parrot’ called CBI, for playing ‘villain?’

Shouldn’t the CBI court in turn order to conduct narco or polygraphic test of CBI sleuths, dismissing the latter’s plea to do so on Jagan by respecting the overwhelming verdict of the people in the by-polls?