Majority think that the official nominee of Congress-led UPA coalition and former Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will emerge as a clear winner with over 60% vote percent share in his favor. It could turn out to be the adage of “counting the chicks before the Hen lays the eggs.”

Considering P A Sangma’s spirited campaign to garner support the result may not turn out to be a clean sweep by Pranab Mukherjee as the visual media hype is projecting it to be - a one sided affair.

Or, will the Presidential poll going to become a ‘suspense thriller’ due to ‘secret ballot’? None can rule out cross-voting by elected representatives on the basis of appeal of Sangma for exercising their right of “conscience vote”.

More importantly, even those parties which have officially announced their support for Mukherjee have rebels opposing the official party line. Add to them, possibility of small parties like TRS and also the T-Congress MPs and MLAs either abstaining or voting in favor of Pranab Mukherjee just only to warn the UPA alliance that they cannot go on procrastinating over their demand.

None can rule out even the possibility of TMC either abstaining or allowing its party representatives to exercise their “conscience vote:. With Jaganmohan Reddy in jail, how the YSRCP will decide ultimately is any one’s guess. Even there are some of his supporters still officially in the ranks of the Congress Party who may not vote in favor of Pranab Mukherjee.

What about few if not majority of Tribal MPs and MLAs cutting across party lines casting their vote in favor of P A Sangma? Even the en bloc JD (U) need not be taken for granted considering coalition politics in Bihar.

Thus, the suspense is bound to prevail till the votes are counted and the result is declared. Even in 1967, though odds (I mean all so called calculation of votes of supporting and opposing parties calculated meticulously), all powerful then Congress icon Indira Gandhi nominated fire-brand politician Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy lost to the Opposition backed trade union leader V V Giri. Well, then accusing fingers might have been pointed at none other than Indira Gandhi, for ensuring rival VV Giri, still Sanjeeva Reddy could bounce back to win the 1977 Presidential elections unopposed.

While he was elected in the 1977 poll, Reddy himself lost the race to Rashtrapathi Bhavan during the election held on August 16, 1969, when V.V. Giri was victorious, securing 4,01,515 preferential votes (48.01 per cent).

If media wants to gloat over Pranab’s emerging as a clean winner, they should base it on Pranab getting over 60 percent of total votes, that is, over 6,50,000 votes. If there are large scale abstentions and polling percentage drops to 85-90 percent of total votes only, it would reflect that over 10 per cent voters have rejected his candidature even though they have not participated in the voting. If he wins by getting say 4,80,000 votes, surely it is not to be viewed as a ‘clean hand down win’ for it will be only 48 percent of votes polled.

To be hyped as a clean sweep by Pranab, he should poll 60 percent of total votes and not votes polled? It is also too premature to predict the margins of victory and defeat.